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THE BIG, BEAUTIFUL CALL ACROSS THE BORDER — President Donald Trump was bursting with bonhomie in a call with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau after the Canada trade deal, our Alex Panetta reports. We hear Trudeau could hardly get a word in, as Trump spoke for most of the 15-minute call about how excellent, how wonderful everything is going to be now that the bargaining tensions are over. Trump even spoke of North America as a united trading block ready to take on the world.
A whale of a list — Dairy may have been a key sticking point between the U.S. and Canada, but there were also fights over what the U.S. saw as the tiniest details — like the world’s largest mammal. A U.S. trade official snapped when Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland raised a marine conservation issue, and 11 other items, as the U.S. was convinced it was only two items away from a deal. Why, he thundered, was she talking about saving whales instead of saving NAFTA?
The Canadians say they did this because the U.S. wanted to squeeze Canada into signing the same deal as Mexico, but Canada wanted more changes. The Trudeau government got some in the end — including different rules for online shopping taxes and duties.
THERE ARE OTHER THINGS BESIDES NAFTA — U.S. and Canadian officials are quietly, tentatively turning to post-NAFTA priorities even though USMCA is not over the finish line just yet. We heard a bunch of ideas during our recent chat with Canada’s ambassador to Washington. In a relationship this vast, the possibilities are endless: next-generation space cooperation; border modernization; opioid addiction; or, as the Trump administration has suggested, global trade reform.
But not so fast — Tension during the USMCA ratification process remains possible, especially when there are still tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum, and lumber. Plus, there’s the political elephant in the room: Trump’s unpopularity in Canada. Canadian pollster Darrell Bricker said: "Trump has the worst popularity numbers for an American president among Canadians that I have ever seen. … The negative reaction is visceral and total. The idea that there’s even a place to start a conversation … is an extremely optimistic read.”
— Major fossil fuel developments in Canada on Wednesday: The Trudeau government says it will consult with indigenous communities instead of challenging an appeals court decision blocking the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion. … The latest snag in plans for a national carbon tax came from Manitoba, which announced it was pulling out of the federal-provincial plan.
— Trudeau called Conservatives “ambulance-chasers” on Wednesday for criticizing a convicted child killer’s transfer from a prison to a healing lodge. One day earlier, Trudeau had bemoaned the politics of personal attacks and vowed to run a positive 2019 campaign.
— The U.S. economy is humming and Republicans are likely to get more positive economic news ahead of the midterms, but five weeks before Election Day, the Senate map of competitive seats is expanding instead of contracting.
— Washington is bracing for the release of the FBI’s report on sexual assault allegations against Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh.
— Trump ripped into The New York Times over its lengthy report alleging extensive tax-dodging schemes, for which Pro Tax’s Aaron Lorenzo reports the president is unlikely to pay a legal or financial price.
C’EST JEUDI — Welcome to POLITICO Pro Canada’s morning newsletter. Tell us all the things: lgardner@politico.com in Washington or on Twitter @Gardner_LM and @Alex_Panetta in Ottawa.
“The time that your enemy gives you / Good times are not the ones you want”
LONG SLOG AHEAD — The No. 2 Republican in the U.S. Senate poured cold water on speculation that the new North American trade agreement could get a congressional vote this year. Sen. John Cornyn said Wednesday that Congress will probably not have a chance to vote on the USMCA until next year — and it’s going to be an "uphill fight" to get it passed, reports Pro Trade’s Megan Cassella. Cornyn said it could be difficult for the agreement to win votes in part because there has been pushback from some lawmakers against anything Trump has put forward.
A TALE OF CHEESE AND METALS — U.S. cheese producers applaud the dairy provisions of USMCA — but they’re not ready to celebrate because of tariffs imposed by Mexico, among others, in retaliation for U.S. steel and aluminum tariffs, reports POLITICO’s Sarah Zimmerman. Cheese makers say the duties have hobbled their ability to remain competitive in the global marketplace.
The U.S. aluminum industry on Wednesday called on the Trump administration to reach an agreement with Canada and Mexico to lift U.S. tariffs on aluminum before the USMCA is signed, reports Pro Trade’s Doug Palmer. Trump indicated on Monday that the U.S. steel and aluminum tariffs on Canada and Mexico could be replaced with quotas, a solution that troubles the industry.
LET’S MAKE A DEAL — Michigan and Enbridge reached a deal Wednesday on replacing the aging Line 5 pipeline system that puts the Canadian company on the hook for the multimillion-dollar project, your co-host Lauren writes. The agreement in principle — any new pipeline would require a number of permits — spells out that Enbridge would permanently shut down the existing pipes once a new line is up and running, and how in the interim it would mitigate environmental risks from the 65-year-old pipeline. Pro Canada subscribers may recall Sen. Gary Peters (D-Mich.) outlining his concerns with the company’s stewardship of the pipeline to Lauren a few weeks ago.
WE CAN’T PRONOUNCE IT, BUT WE CAN VISUALIZE IT — Our friends at Pro DataPoint break down USMCA’s general provisions and its country-specific measures on everything from agricultural products to labor rights. Check out the DataPoint graphic here. Want to add DataPoint to your Pro account? Learn more.
Metaphysics of trade — The Internet has been competing to come up with better monikers for the USMCA, an abbreviation your hosts still don’t know how to pronounce. But the clear winner came from Pro Financial Services reporter Victoria Guida, who tweeted Tuesday: “I think the new NAFTA should be called ‘CAMUS’ because life is absurd and we should embrace it.” Game over.
TAX: While Canadian business and government wrestle with preserving competitiveness in the face of the Trump administration’s aggressive tax cuts, a new survey suggests mid-size companies are not increasing investment as much as expected, reports Pro Tax’s Toby Eckert. Only 38 percent of company leaders said they planned to increase the dollar amount of their capital expenditures despite more generous depreciation and expensing provisions included in the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, H.R. 1 (115) — and only half of that 38 percent are planning new investments, with the rest accelerating investments that were already planned.
CYBERSECURITY: The federal government shouldn’t regulate voting technology vendors the way it regulates other makers of critical infrastructure systems, like power generation equipment and medical devices, a senior U.S. Department of Homeland Security official said Wednesday. "We think that we’re making a significant amount of progress in the voluntary partnership space," Christopher Krebs, head of the main DHS cyber wing, told reporters after speaking at an Election Assistance Commission summit at the Capitol.
HEALTH CARE: Both Canada and the U.S. are grappling with solutions to the growing opioid crisis. Pro Health Care’s Brianna Ehley takes a close look at how Congress’ sweeping opioid bill, H.R. 6 (115), now on its way to the president’s desk, will reshape the treatment of opioid addiction in the U.S. The legislation addresses the shortage of treatment providers and beds across the country, particularly in remote and rural areas, as well as inpatient and outpatient programs, from birth to old age. It also increases access to Medication-Assisted Treatment such as prescription buprenorphine.
PARTY TIME — The Canadian American Business Council hosted a North American Neighborhood Block Party on Wednesday night to celebrate the announcement of a NAFTA deal. Spotted at the Beltway event at the Wharf Club Penthouse, where drinks included the “Maple Crusta” and the “Paloma on the Wharf”: Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-Wis.), former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean, Monty Hoffman, Gitane De Silva, Frédéric Tremblay, Karen Antebi, Alex Russ, Scott Hoffman, Jennifer Sloan, Christina Gomes, True Claycombe, Aaron Annable, Cindy Kierscht, Bill Miller, David Miller, Jay Lucey, and host Scotty Greenwood.
— “Under CAQ, legal age to consume cannabis in Quebec will be 21 — eventually.” CBC News.
— “Alberta minister decries ‘double standards’ as B.C.’s LNG project goes ahead.” CBC News.
— “Alberta government issues RfP for 135,00 MWH of solar.” PV Magazine.
— “Alberta eyes implementing community benefits agreements.” Journal of Commerce.
— “Premier Doug Ford vows to scrap previous Ontario government’s worker protection bill.” The Canadian Press.
— “Company plans to build wind turbines along Lake Ontario in upstate N.Y.” The Associated Press.
— “N.W.T. should develop own gas resources, says territory, Inuvialuit Corporation.” CBC News.
C’est tranquille.
Did we miss an event? Let us know at canadacalendar@politico.com.
Beatriz Simpkins 